Opening Pokémon packs is fun. But how much are the cards inside actually worth?
We crunched the numbers on every current set using real Cardmarket prices and verified pull rates. The results might surprise you — almost every set is negative EV at current market prices. Here's the full picture.
How We Calculate EV
For every set, we take every card worth more than bulk, multiply its market price by the probability of pulling it, and add it all up. That gives us the card value per pack: the average value of cards you'd pull if you opened thousands of packs.
We then compare this to what a single booster pack actually costs on the secondary market. If the card value exceeds the pack price, the set is EV positive. If it's below, you're paying more for the pack than the cards inside are worth on average.
Important caveat: our card EV uses the data available from Cardmarket's API, which may not include every rarity tier for some sets. The numbers shown are a floor estimate — actual card value could be higher. All prices update daily via our automated system.
The Rankings
Umbreon ex SIR
Espeon ex SIR
Sylveon ex SIRThe set with the highest card value per pack in the modern era. The Umbreon ex SIR sits at €840+ on Cardmarket. On top of that, Espeon ex SIR, Sylveon ex SIR, and five more Eeveelution SIRs each hold strong value.
The SIR tier hits at 1-in-45, way better than the standard SV rate of 1-in-86. With 32 SIRs in the pool, you've got roughly a 1-in-1.4 chance of pulling some SIR from any given pack.
However, the cheapest NM English pack on Cardmarket is €9.60. With a card EV of roughly €2.33 per pack, you're losing about €7 per pack on average. The card EV is a floor estimate because Cardmarket's API doesn't return data for the Illustration Rare tier in SV sets, meaning ~32 cards are excluded from the calculation.
Best product: Single packs at €9.60 are the cheapest way in. ETBs and Booster Bundles carry significant premiums.
Prismatic Evolutions →
Ascended Heroes is the largest Mega Evolution set with 295 cards. Sold through ETBs, Poster Collections, and other sealed products — no booster box.
Mega Dragonite ex SIR has settled as the main chase. The MHR tier is brutally rare at 1-in-540, but those slots command serious value. The MEG era improved pull rates compared to SV — Double Rares land at 1-in-5 (versus 1-in-6 in SV), and the MAR tier at 1-in-29 adds a unique layer.
Card EV sits at roughly €3.48 per pack. The cheapest single booster is €13.11 on Cardmarket, making this negative EV at current prices. You're paying a €10 premium per pack over the card value.
Best product: Look for the lowest cost-per-pack option. Single boosters are usually the best deal for pure EV.
Ascended Heroes →
Perfect Order is a compact 120-card set with a Booster Display Box (36 packs). Smaller sets concentrate value into fewer cards, which can be an advantage.
The pull rate structure follows the MEG era: SIRs at 1-in-101, MHRs at 1-in-1,260. Because the set is smaller, hits feel more concentrated.
Card EV is €0.92 per pack and single boosters are €2.95 on Cardmarket. This set is fresh and prices are still settling — expect card values to shift as the market finds its level.
Best product: Single packs at €2.95 are the cheapest entry point. The Booster Box at ~€170 runs about €4.72 per pack.
Perfect Order →
Umbreon VMAX AA
Rayquaza VMAX AAEvolving Skies is no longer a value play. The cheapest NM English pack on Cardmarket is €33.05.
The Umbreon VMAX Alt Art trades at ~€350 on Cardmarket, the Rayquaza VMAX Alt Art at ~€150, and there's a whole roster of Eeveelution alts beneath those.
Card EV is €4.47 per pack — solid, but at €33 per pack you need to hit big to break even. The Umbreon alone is worth about 7.5 packs. Anything less than a top-tier alt art and you're deep underwater. This is a collector's set now, not a value play.
Best product: Only buy if you're chasing specific cards or collecting. The math strongly favors buying singles.
Evolving Skies →
Charizard ex SIR
Mew ex GoldCharizard ex SIR at €250+ on Cardmarket does the heavy lifting. Blastoise and Venusaur SIRs each add significant value. Mew ex Gold fills things out.
SIR pull rates use the older, more generous 1-in-32 rate (before the nerf to 1-in-86 starting with sv04).
Card EV is the highest of any modern set at €6.14 per pack. But with single packs at €19.95 on Cardmarket, you're still losing about €14 per pack on average. The 1-in-32 SIR rate with a €250 Charizard at the top is exciting, but the pack premium makes it negative EV.
One thing that makes 151 special: even the commons are desirable. Collectors want the full Kanto dex, so bulk pulls have more floor value than other sets.
Best product: If you can find sealed product near MSRP, grab it. At €20 per pack on the secondary market, it's firmly negative EV.
151 →Sets to Avoid
Most sets are negative EV at current market prices. These are particularly bad:
Obsidian Flames (SV03) has card EV of roughly €1.18 per pack with boosters at €4.75. No single chase above €20.
Paradox Rift (SV04) comes in at €0.81 per pack card EV. The large 266-card pool dilutes value across too many cards.
Fusion Strike (SWSH08) is 284 cards with card EV of €2.12 per pack but boosters at €11.20. The Espeon VMAX Alt Art is excellent but finding it in this massive card pool is brutal.
The Bottom Line
The honest truth: almost every set is negative EV when buying packs at current secondary market prices. The cards inside a pack are worth less than what you pay for the pack.
If you're opening packs in 2026, you're paying for the experience — the thrill of the pull, the joy of collecting, the hunt for that chase card. And there's nothing wrong with that.
But if you want specific cards, buying singles is almost always cheaper. Our EV calculator shows the real numbers for every set, updated daily with live Cardmarket prices.
One rule to live by: know what you're paying for before you rip.